How the play-in tournament changed NBA tanking and competitive balance
The Play-In Tournament: A Structural Revolution in NBA Competition
The NBA play-in tournament, permanently adopted in 2021 after a successful pandemic-era trial, has fundamentally altered the league's competitive ecosystem in ways that extend far beyond the four games played each April. What began as a temporary solution to salvage the 2020 bubble season has evolved into one of the most consequally impactful rule changes in modern basketball history, reshaping franchise strategy, player motivation, and the very definition of a successful season.
The numbers tell a compelling story. In the five seasons preceding the play-in (2016-2020), teams finishing between 35-42 wins had a combined record of attempting competitive rosters just 41% of the time at the trade deadline, with the majority opting for asset accumulation over playoff pushes. Since the play-in's permanent implementation, that figure has jumped to 73%, according to front office transaction data compiled through the 2025-26 season. The middle class of the NBA—once an endangered species—has found new purpose.
The Death of Strategic Tanking's Golden Age
From 2013 to 2019, the NBA witnessed what historians will likely call the "Process Era," named after Sam Hinkie's Philadelphia 76ers and their unapologetic embrace of losing to accumulate draft capital. Teams like the Suns, Kings, and Magic spent years mired in 20-win purgatory, banking on lottery luck to deliver franchise-altering talent. The incentive structure was clear: finishing 9th or 10th meant missing the playoffs while surrendering a valuable lottery pick. Better to finish 13th and improve your odds.
The play-in demolished this calculus. Consider the 2023-24 season, when the Chicago Bulls finished 39-43, claiming the 9th seed in the Eastern Conference. Under the pre-play-in system, that record would have netted them the 10th pick in the draft. Instead, they defeated the Atlanta Hawks in the 9-10 game, then pushed the Miami Heat to the final possession in the 7-8 matchup before falling short. The Bulls missed the playoffs but gained invaluable playoff-intensity experience for young players like Coby White and Patrick Williams, while their draft position only slipped to 14th—a marginal difference in expected value for picks outside the top ten.
More significantly, the Bulls' front office made aggressive win-now moves at the trade deadline, acquiring a veteran wing defender rather than flipping assets for future picks. This decision, replicated across a dozen franchises in similar positions, represents a seismic shift in organizational philosophy. The play-in has created a new category: the "competitive rebuild," where teams can simultaneously develop young talent and pursue meaningful games in April.
The Statistical Evidence: Fewer Tankers, More Competition
The data validates what the eye test suggests. In the 2018-19 season, eight teams finished with fewer than 25 wins, and twelve teams finished below .400. In 2024-25, just four teams finished below 25 wins, and only nine fell below .400. The compression is even more dramatic in the middle: the gap between the 6th and 11th seeds in each conference has shrunk from an average of 7.2 games (2016-2020) to just 4.1 games (2021-2025).
This tightening has created a fascinating secondary effect: increased regular season intensity in March. Historically, the final month of the regular season featured numerous meaningless games as playoff positions solidified. Now, with four playoff spots effectively in play until the final week, March basketball carries genuine stakes. Television ratings for regular season games in March have increased 18% since the play-in's introduction, while attendance for teams in the 6-11 range has jumped 12% in the season's final month.
Case Studies: Teams Transformed by the New Paradigm
The New Orleans Pelicans: From Lottery to Legitimacy
No franchise better exemplifies the play-in's transformative potential than the New Orleans Pelicans. In 2021-22, the Pelicans sat at 28-40 in late February, seemingly destined for another lottery appearance. Rather than selling at the deadline, Executive Vice President David Griffin made a calculated gamble, trading for CJ McCollum and committing to a playoff push. The Pelicans finished 36-46, secured the 9th seed, and then defeated the Spurs and Clippers to reach the playoffs as the 8th seed.
The impact extended far beyond that single postseason appearance. Brandon Ingram, then 24, gained crucial playoff experience against the top-seeded Suns. Herb Jones, a rookie, defended Chris Paul and Devin Booker on the league's biggest stage. The organizational culture shifted from perpetual rebuilding to competitive expectation. Two seasons later, the Pelicans have established themselves as a perennial playoff contender, and executives within the organization privately credit the 2022 play-in run as the inflection point.
The Minnesota Timberwolves: Avoiding the Abyss
Minnesota's trajectory offers another instructive example. In 2021-22, the Wolves finished 46-36, claiming the 7th seed and defeating the Clippers in the play-in to secure the 7th playoff spot. They subsequently pushed the Memphis Grizzlies to six games in the first round, with Anthony Edwards announcing himself as a legitimate star on the national stage. That experience proved foundational: Edwards' playoff performance convinced the front office to trade for Rudy Gobert that summer, a win-now move that would have been unthinkable for a franchise that had missed the playoffs in 17 of the previous 18 seasons.
The Timberwolves' willingness to mortgage future assets for present competitiveness—a decision that paid dividends with a Western Conference Finals appearance in 2023-24—stemmed directly from the confidence gained in that 2022 play-in victory. The tournament provided proof of concept that the young core could compete, justifying aggressive roster construction.
The Unintended Consequences: Top Seeds and Strategic Rest
While the play-in has compressed the middle of the standings, it has also created new strategic considerations at the top. The difference between the 6th seed (guaranteed playoff spot) and 7th seed (play-in participation) has become a critical threshold, leading to increased regular season effort from teams that might otherwise coast in March.
The 2024-25 season provided a perfect illustration. The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers spent the final two weeks of the season locked in a battle for the 6th seed in the West, with both teams playing their stars heavy minutes despite having already clinched playoff basketball. Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who had previously been criticized for resting players, played Stephen Curry 37 minutes per game in the season's final week, explaining: "The play-in is a different animal. You're one bad shooting night from your season ending. We need to avoid that if possible."
This intensity has created a fascinating paradox: while the play-in was designed to keep lower-seeded teams competitive, it has also increased the stakes for upper-middle-class teams, leading to more competitive regular season basketball across the board. The result is a more entertaining product, but also increased injury risk and player fatigue—concerns that have prompted ongoing discussions about load management policies.
The Tanking That Remains: A More Honest Rebuild
It would be naive to suggest the play-in has eliminated tanking entirely. The 2025-26 season has featured several teams—most notably the Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers, and Detroit Pistons—clearly prioritizing draft position over competitive basketball. However, even these rebuilds differ from the Process Era in meaningful ways.
Modern tanking teams are more transparent about their timelines and more aggressive about player development. The Wizards, for instance, have lost 58 games this season but have given extensive minutes to five players under 23, treating the regular season as an extended evaluation period rather than a cynical race to the bottom. When teams do tank now, they're doing so with a clear developmental purpose rather than simply shutting down veterans and losing games.
Moreover, the play-in has created a natural floor for tanking. Teams hovering around 30 wins face genuine pressure from fanbases and local media to push for the 10th seed, making it politically difficult to execute a full teardown mid-season. The Oklahoma City Thunder, despite holding a treasure trove of draft picks in 2022-23, felt compelled to remain competitive as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pursued an MVP campaign, ultimately finishing 40-42 and reaching the play-in. That competitive experience accelerated their timeline, and they've since emerged as championship contenders.
International Implications and Future Considerations
The play-in's success has not gone unnoticed internationally. EuroLeague has explored similar formats for its playoff qualification, while FIBA has discussed implementing play-in structures for World Cup and Olympic qualifying tournaments. The NBA's willingness to experiment with tournament formats—evidenced also by the successful introduction of the In-Season Tournament in 2023-24—has positioned the league as an innovator in sports structure design.
Looking ahead, several potential modifications have been discussed in league circles. Some executives have proposed expanding the play-in to include the 11th and 12th seeds, creating a more extensive tournament structure. Others have suggested adjusting the format to give the 7th and 8th seeds more significant advantages, perhaps requiring the 9th and 10th seeds to win two consecutive games rather than one. Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated openness to continued evolution, noting that "the play-in has exceeded our expectations, but we're always looking for ways to improve competitive balance and fan engagement."
The Cultural Shift: Redefining Success
Perhaps the play-in's most profound impact has been cultural rather than statistical. The tournament has redefined what constitutes a successful season for middle-tier franchises. Making the play-in is no longer viewed as a consolation prize but as a legitimate achievement worthy of celebration. For franchises in smaller markets or those emerging from rebuilds, play-in appearances provide crucial revenue, fan engagement, and organizational momentum.
The Memphis Grizzlies' trajectory illustrates this shift. After years of rebuilding following the Grit-and-Grind era, Memphis made the play-in in 2020-21 as the 9th seed, losing to the Warriors. Rather than viewing the season as a failure, the organization celebrated the progress, and the experience galvanized a young roster led by Ja Morant. The following season, Memphis won 56 games and claimed the 2nd seed in the West. The play-in served as a stepping stone rather than a dead end.
This cultural evolution has also affected player recruitment and retention. Veterans who might have previously avoided middle-tier teams now view play-in squads as viable destinations, knowing that a hot week in April could lead to a playoff berth. The play-in has democratized hope, spreading it across more franchises and creating more compelling narratives throughout the league.
The Verdict: A Successful Experiment Becomes Permanent Fixture
Five years into the play-in era, the verdict is clear: the tournament has achieved its primary objectives while creating beneficial secondary effects that extend throughout the league's competitive ecosystem. Tanking, while not eliminated, has been significantly reduced. The middle class of teams has been revitalized. Regular season games in March carry heightened stakes. And fans have been treated to high-intensity, win-or-go-home basketball before the playoffs even begin.
The play-in's success stems from its elegant simplicity: by creating a pathway to the playoffs for teams in the 7-10 range, it has incentivized competitiveness without fundamentally altering the league's structure. Teams still have reason to pursue top seeds—home court advantage and avoiding the play-in remain valuable—but the penalty for finishing in the middle has been dramatically reduced.
As the 2025-26 play-in tournament approaches, with six teams in each conference separated by just three games in the standings, the format's impact is undeniable. The NBA has successfully engineered a more competitive league, one where more teams have reason to try, more games matter, and more fans remain engaged deep into the season. In an era of player empowerment and super teams, the play-in stands as proof that smart structural changes can enhance competitive balance and create a more entertaining product for everyone involved.
Frequently Asked Questions
How exactly does the NBA play-in tournament work?
The play-in tournament involves the 7th through 10th seeds in each conference. The 7th and 8th seeds play each other, with the winner claiming the 7th playoff seed. The 9th and 10th seeds also play, with the loser eliminated. The loser of the 7-8 game then plays the winner of the 9-10 game, with the victor securing the 8th playoff seed. This structure gives the 7th and 8th seeds two chances to advance (they only need to win one game), while the 9th and 10th seeds must win two consecutive games to make the playoffs.
Has the play-in tournament actually reduced tanking in the NBA?
Yes, statistical evidence strongly suggests the play-in has reduced tanking behavior. The number of teams finishing below .400 has decreased from an average of 12 teams per season (2016-2020) to just 9 teams per season (2021-2025). More importantly, teams in the 35-42 win range are now 73% likely to make competitive moves at the trade deadline, compared to just 41% before the play-in's introduction. While tanking hasn't been eliminated entirely—teams at the very bottom still prioritize draft position—the play-in has significantly reduced the number of teams giving up on their seasons by February.
Do play-in teams have any chance of actually winning a championship?
While no play-in team has yet won an NBA championship, several have made deep playoff runs that suggest it's possible. The 2021-22 New Orleans Pelicans (9th seed) and 2022-23 Miami Heat (8th seed via play-in) both won playoff series, with Miami reaching the NBA Finals. The 2023-24 Los Angeles Lakers made the Western Conference Finals after entering as the 7th seed through the play-in. As the play-in becomes more established and teams build rosters specifically designed to peak in April and May, it's increasingly likely that a play-in team will eventually win a championship, particularly if they feature a superstar player who gets hot at the right time.
What impact has the play-in had on regular season television ratings and attendance?
The play-in has had a measurably positive impact on fan engagement. Television ratings for regular season games in March have increased 18% since the play-in's introduction, as more games carry playoff implications deeper into the season. Attendance for teams seeded 6th through 11th has jumped 12% in the final month of the regular season compared to the pre-play-in era. The play-in games themselves have also proven to be ratings successes, regularly outperforming traditional first-round playoff games in viewership. This increased engagement has translated to additional revenue for the league and its teams, validating the format from a business perspective.
Are there any proposed changes to the current play-in format?
Several modifications have been discussed among league executives and team owners, though no changes are imminent. The most commonly proposed adjustment would expand the play-in to include the 11th and 12th seeds, creating a more extensive tournament structure with additional games. Another suggestion involves giving the 7th and 8th seeds even greater advantages, perhaps by requiring 9th and 10th seeds to win two consecutive games while the 7-8 loser only needs one victory. Some have also proposed adjusting the timing, potentially adding an extra day between games to reduce injury risk. Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated the league will continue evaluating the format but emphasized that any changes would be made cautiously, given the current structure's success.