SGA's College Path Shows Why NBA Draft Is Still A Crapshoot

The OKC Blueprint and College Ball's Unsung Heroes

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 37 points against the 76ers the other night, leading the Thunder to a hard-fought win. He shot 13-of-25 from the floor, pulled down eight rebounds, and dished out five assists. It was another masterclass from a guy who’s quietly become one of the league’s most dominant scorers. But here's the thing: watching SGA dominate makes me think about his college days at Kentucky, and how much he flew under the radar as a freshman.

Think about it. In 2017-18, SGA wasn’t the consensus top pick. He wasn’t even the top recruit in his own Kentucky class; that was Kevin Knox and Nick Richards. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 14.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.1 rebounds for the Wildcats, solid numbers, sure, but not the kind that screamed "future MVP candidate." He went 11th overall in the 2018 NBA Draft, behind guys like Marvin Bagley III and Mo Bamba. That draft class is a perfect example of how much projection is still involved, and how college development can sometimes be misjudged.

The March Madness Connection: One-and-Dones and Long-Term Value

We obsess over the one-and-done talent, and for good reason. Names like Zion Williamson or Victor Wembanyama demand attention. But the Thunder's roster, built around players who had varying college careers, shows there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Chet Holmgren, another Wildcat product from Gonzaga, was a highly touted one-and-done, drafted second overall in 2022. He's producing too, averaging over 16 points and 7 rebounds in his rookie season, but his path to stardom was always clearer than Gilgeous-Alexander's.

And that’s where the college game still matters, even for a college hoops insider like me who's seen a million "can't miss" prospects miss. It's about finding those guys who show flashes, who have the work ethic, and who just need the right system. SGA wasn't carrying Kentucky in the same way he carries the Thunder, but his time under Coach Calipari taught him discipline and how to play within a team structure. That foundation, however understated it seemed at the time, clearly paid dividends. I actually think scouts put too much stock into pure athleticism over court vision and feel for the game sometimes. SGA had the latter in spades, even if his vertical wasn't off the charts.

I'm telling you, keep an eye on those mid-tier college guys this March. The ones who aren't on every mock draft in November but start to really gel in conference play. Because the next Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably out there right now, just waiting for his breakout moment in the NCAA Tournament.

Prediction: This year’s NCAA Tournament will produce at least two top-20 NBA Draft picks who aren't currently projected in the top 30.